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Data Analyses

There has been alot of effort put in to understanding the final canvass from the 2004 General Election held in November. New Mexico allows access to an amazing amount of detailed information, providing precinct level detail in their canvass. This information, combined with precinct level demographic data and voting machine usage uncovers some interesting anomalies that beg an explanation.

This information comes from the Secretary of State via Stephen Fettig with Verified Voting New Mexico

1) For Dona Ana county, Precinct 106, Absentee Ballots, the canvassing report gives the following information from pages 10 and 12:

Ballots Cast Total	Bush Vote	Kerry Vote	Other Vote	Total Pres. Vote	Phantom Votes
107	189	123	13	325	218

Steve Fresquez at the Secretary of State's office says there was not time to count the overseas absentee ballots for the military into precincts, so the votes were just put in Precinct 106. That's why there are no presidential absentee votes in precinct 999, but there are 207 signatures. Thus, it seems this problem was a big clerical mis-handling (error?) forced by the lack of time given to county clerks to complete their vote reporting to the Secretary of State.

2) For the Grant County, Precinct 019, Election Day, the canvassing report gives the following information:

Ballots Cast Total	Bush Vote	Kerry Vote	Other Vote	Total Pres. Vote	Phantom Votes
205	149	133	3	285	80

Steve Fresquez at the Secretary of State's office says this is a typographic error. The Bush vote was really 49, not 149. He didn't think the error would ever be officially corrected.

CONCLUSION.
I asked Steve Fresquez in the Secretary of State's office, how these kinds of problems can be avoided in the future. The answer was generally that county clerks need to be under less time pressure to get final results to the Secretary of State's office for canvassing board's meeting.

Statistical Analysis of Voting Results

• Analysis of undervotes by machine and ethnicity pdf
• 2 pg Brief of General Election Anomalies 2004 pdf
• 12 pg Summary Report of General Election Anomalies 2004 pdf
• A report showing Undervotes and Phantom Votes by Machine Type and Ethnicity pdf
• Full Data Analysis by precinct, complete with Early Voting, Absentee Voting, Election Day Voting, and Demographics -- Excel file (3Mb)
• Bernalillo County Anomalies Word document
• Dona Ana County Anomalies Word document
• McKinley County Anomalies Word document
• Sandoval County Anomalies Word document
• San Juan County Anomalies Word document
• San Miguel County Anomalies Word document
• Santa Fe County Anomalies Word document
• Taos County Anomalies Word document

 

Please share

If you have done any analysis on the election that you are willing to share, please email us. Don't forget to include your name and the group, if appropriate, that you are working with.